在世界经济论坛2024年年会开幕式上的特别致辞（2024年1月16日，达沃斯）
中华人民共和国国务院总理 李强
女士们，先生们，朋友们：
大家好！很高兴来到美丽的达沃斯，出席世界经济论坛2024年年会。
本次年会以“重建信任”为主题，非常契合人们的关切，一定会引起广泛的共鸣。我觉得，“重建”一词至少包含了三层意思：其一，信任曾经广泛存在，过去几十年来经济全球化取得的巨大进展，很大程度上得益于各国之间的相互信任；其二，现在信任之基遭到了破坏，信任缺失正加剧全球经济增长及和平发展的风险；其三，重建信任尤为重要，无论是克服现实的困难，还是共创美好的未来，都应当放下成见、弥合分歧，团结一心破解信任赤字。
信任从何而来？我想，它首先建立在我们对人类美好未来的憧憬，并愿意为之共同努力的基础之上。正如习近平主席所指出的，世界之变、时代之变、历史之变正以前所未有的方式展开，世界进入新的动荡变革期，但人类发展进步的大方向不会改变，世界历史曲折前进的大逻辑不会改变，国际社会命运与共的大趋势不会改变。经历过这些年的变局变化，我们应当更加珍视沟通与交流，更加珍视团结与合作，更加珍视开放与共享，更加珍视和平与稳定。这些应变之道，某种意义上也是重建信任之道。这里，我想主要着眼经济领域重建信任加强合作，跟大家分享五点建议。
一是加强宏观经济政策协调，更好汇聚世界经济增长的合力。当今世界经济联系十分紧密，各国宏观经济政策的外溢效应更加明显。在全球性危机的冲击下，如果碎片化地各自为战，只会让世界经济更加脆弱。世界各国特别是主要经济体在制定实施宏观政策时，应当加强对话与沟通，采取更为协同有效的举措，坚定维护多边贸易体制，共同完善全球经济治理，培育全球经济发展的新动能。
二是加强国际产业分工协作，切实维护全球产业链供应链稳定畅通。有关数据显示，2020至2022年全球新增歧视性贸易及相关投资措施年均超过5400项，是新冠疫情前的近2倍。产业链供应链是经济发展的“血管系统”，任何干扰破坏，都会在世界经济大循环中形成“梗阻”、“断点”，既牺牲发展效率，又会诱发各种经济风险和社会问题。只有充分尊重国际产业分工的客观规律，坚定不移推进贸易和投资自由化便利化，把合作的纽带拉紧，把互惠的蛋糕做大，不断提升全球产业链供应链的稳定性，才真正符合各方共同利益。
三是加强国际科技交流合作，让技术变革更好惠及人类。新一轮科技革命和产业变革带来国与国间新的竞合关系，只有加强创新合作，才能形成良性竞争，激发最大活力。科技成果应该造福全人类，而不应该成为限制、遏制他国发展的手段。我们应以更加开放的思维和举措推进国际科技交流合作，携手打造开放、公正、非歧视的科技发展环境，打破制约创新要素流动的壁垒，让创新在开放的土壤中茁壮成长。
四是加强绿色发展合作，积极应对全球气候变化。人类在应对气候变化、推进绿色低碳转型方面仍面临不少挑战，诸如一边大谈加强气候治理合作、一边设置绿色贸易壁垒的做法还大量存在，一些优质高效的绿色低碳技术和产品不能自由流通。我们应坚持共同但有区别的责任原则，加强绿色发展战略对接，破除各种绿色壁垒，共同推进经济社会发展全面绿色转型。
五是加强南北合作、南南合作，着力建设普惠包容的世界经济。近年来，全球南北差距、复苏分化、技术鸿沟等问题更加突出，不少发展中国家陷入困境。世界银行预测，今年超过三分之一低收入国家的人均收入仍将低于2019年水平。中国人讲求的是“美美与共”，只有大家一起发展，才是真发展、好发展。我们应当全面落实联合国2030年可持续发展议程，加强全球发展合作，弥合发展鸿沟，在减贫、粮食安全、工业化等领域打造新的合作亮点，让更多合作成果惠及各国人民。
中华优秀传统文化包含了十分丰富的诚信内涵。中国历来“言必信、行必果”，是重信守诺的国家。我们始终以最大的诚意，付出最大的努力，以实实在在的成果，向世人证明，中国是最值得信任的！我们也深知，信任赤字的加深，既有客观原因，也有人为因素。由于一方的任性而损害彼此的信任，这样的情形在双边、多边关系中还是不少。做好自己才能赢得信任，各方唯有以诚相待、相向而行，才能夯实信任之基，收获更多合作之果。
女士们，先生们，朋友们！
当前形势下，推动世界经济复苏，需要有强劲的支撑力量，期待着各方特别是主要经济体能有更大的贡献。我知道，在座各位对中国经济都很关注，可能也都有各自的一些看法。那么，对中国经济到底应该怎么看？我想，这与我们在达沃斯小镇看阿尔卑斯山有相通之处。阿尔卑斯山群峰巍峨，连绵不绝。有欧洲朋友告诉我，想要领略阿尔卑斯山雄浑壮阔之美，一定要把视野放宽、把目光投远一些。看待中国经济也同样如此，只有打开视野的纵深，进行全景式观察，才能做到客观和全面，看到整体和全貌，真正了解中国经济的当下之形与长远之势。在此，我愿意就中国经济情况，向大家作些介绍。
第一，中国经济稳健前行，将持续为世界经济发展提供强大动力。中国是全球发展的重要引擎，这些年对世界经济增长贡献率一直保持在30%左右。刚刚过去的2023年中国经济总体回升向好，预计国内生产总值增长5.2%左右，高于年初确定的5%左右的预期目标。在推动经济发展的过程中，我们坚持不搞强刺激，没有以积累长期风险为代价换取短期增长，而是着力增强内生发展动力。中国作为全球第二大经济体，已经在长期发展中形成了良好稳固的基本面。就好比一个人有了强健的体魄，免疫力也就随之增强。即便中国经济在运行中出现一些波折，其长期向好的总体趋势不会改变。从产业基础看，中国是唯一拥有联合国产业分类中全部工业门类的国家，制造业增加值占全球比重约30%、连续14年居世界首位，已经形成200多个成熟的产业集群，不论是产业体系的总体规模、完备程度还是配套能力，都能够满足社会生产力快速发展的需要，也将为优化全球生产要素配置、提高全球生产能力作出贡献。从要素禀赋看，中国的“人口红利”正向“人才红利”提升，人才资源总量、科技人力资源、研发人员总量均居全球首位；资本要素从短缺变为充裕，每年资本形成额占全球比重上升至约30%；另外，中国的数据产量巨大，数据资源丰富，是世界第二大“数据富矿”。从创新能力看，中国的全社会研发投入、高技术产业投资连续多年保持两位数增长，云计算、大数据、人工智能、区块链等新兴技术加快应用，智能终端、机器人、远程医疗等新产品、新业态不断涌现。高新技术企业数增加至约40万家，独角兽企业数量居世界第二。这些都将加快中国发展新动能的形成与壮大。从总体上看，中国正以高质量发展全面推进中国式现代化，将引领14亿多人整体迈入现代化，这是人类史上的罕见壮举，必将为中国和世界的发展提供源源不断的动力。
第二，中国具有超大规模市场并处于需求快速释放的阶段，将持续为各类企业和人才的发展提供广阔舞台。当前全球总需求仍然不足，市场是最稀缺的资源。中国的市场空间广阔，纵深也在不断延展，必将为提升全球总需求发挥重要作用。目前中国的中等收入群体超过4亿人，未来十几年将达到8亿人，对越来越多商品、服务的需求从“有没有”向“好不好”转变，消费升级的动能强劲。中国的城镇化率现在比发达国家平均水平低十几个百分点，下一步城市更新、交通电信等基础设施的升级空间很大，还有近3亿农业转移人口正在加快市民化进程，这些都将在住房、教育、医疗、养老等方面带来巨大需求。中国正在深入推进绿色低碳转型，现在全球光伏发电装机容量近一半在中国，全球新能源汽车一半以上行驶在中国、新能源汽车保有量已超过2000万辆，全球四分之一的新增绿化面积来自中国。中国还将在绿色基建、绿色能源、绿色交通、绿色生活等领域形成规模庞大的发展增量，孕育的投资和消费市场据测算每年将达到十万亿元级，潜力巨大。我们将不断发掘和释放这些市场需求，继续扩大对全球各地优质产品、服务的进口规模，加大在中高端制造、生物医药等领域对外资的引进力度，持续为世界贸易、投资增长提供更加宽广的天地。
第三，中国的对外开放坚定不移，将持续为世界各国分享中国机遇创造良好条件。过去40多年，中国在开放中发展了自己、惠及了世界。现在中国已经是140多个国家和地区的主要贸易伙伴，关税总水平已降至7.3%，接近世贸组织发达成员水平。我们积极主动扩大开放，就是要让世界分享中国机遇、与各国共同发展。今天在座的有不少企业家。多年来，跨国企业深耕中国市场，也依托中国的制造能力，面向全球扩大产能，加速了自身成长，获得了丰厚回报。近五年外商在华直接投资收益率约9%，在国际上处于较高水平。选择中国市场不是风险，而是机遇。我们敞开怀抱真心欢迎各国企业继续投资中国，将持续努力打造市场化、法治化、国际化一流营商环境。我们将稳步扩大制度型开放，继续缩减外资准入负面清单，落实好全面取消制造业领域外资准入限制，保障外商投资企业国民待遇。针对很多跨国公司关心的数据跨境流动、平等参与政府采购等问题，中国正在研究制定有关政策。我们还将常态化听取外资企业意见，只要是合理诉求，都会积极推动解决。总之，不管世界形势如何变化，中国都将坚持对外开放的基本国策，开放的大门只会越开越大。女士们，先生们，朋友们！再过20多天，中国农历龙年的新春佳节就要到来。在中华传统文化中，龙代表着祥瑞、智慧和力量。面对共同挑战，希望国际社会各个方面都能带着对人类美好未来的向往，以龙腾虎跃的姿态，向着构建人类命运共同体不断迈进！最后，预祝本次年会圆满成功！谢谢大家！
Special Address by H.E. Li QiangPremier of the State Council of the People's Republic of ChinaAt the Opening CeremonyOf the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2024
Davos, Jan. 16, 2024
Greetings to you all. It gives me great pleasure to come to the beautiful Davos for the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2024.
The theme of this meeting, "Rebuilding Trust," echoes well with people's concerns and will surely strike a chord with many. As I see it, the word "rebuild" implies at least three things. First, trust was once prevalent. To a large extent, it was trust between countries that enabled the huge progress in economic globalization over the past decades. Second, the foundation of trust has now been eroded. The lack of trust is aggravating risks to global growth and peaceful development. Third, rebuilding trust is essential. Whether it is to overcome current difficulties, or to create a better future, it is essential that we discard prejudice, bridge differences and work as one to tackle the trust deficit.
Where does trust come from? In my view, it comes, first and foremost, from our shared aspiration for a better future for humanity and from our common will to work together for that vision. As President Xi Jinping points out, changes of the world, of our times, and of historical significance are unfolding like never before, and the world has entered a new period of turbulence and transformation. Yet the overall direction of human development and progress will not change, the overall dynamics of world history moving forward amid twists and turns will not change, and the overall trend toward a shared future for the international community will not change. After all the shifts and changes over the years, we should all the more cherish communication and exchange, all the more cherish solidarity and cooperation, all the more cherish openness and sharing, and all the more cherish peace and stability. These are not only ways to respond to changes, but in some sense, also ways to rebuild trust. In this connection, I wish to share with you five proposals on rebuilding trust and enhancing cooperation in the economic field.
First, strengthening macroeconomic policy coordination to build greater synergy for global growth. In today's world, countries have very close economic linkages, which means their macroeconomic policies have more notable spillover effects. In the face of global crises, fragmented and separate responses will only leave the world economy more fragile. As such, it is crucial that, in making and executing macro policies, countries around the world, especially major economies, step up dialogue and communication, take more coordinated and effective measures, firmly uphold the multilateral trading system, jointly improve global economic governance, and foster new drivers of global growth.
Second, strengthening international industrial specialization and collaboration to keep global industrial and supply chains stable and smooth. Figures show that from 2020 to 2022, each year saw on average over 5,400 new discriminatory trade and investment measures worldwide, nearly doubling the number before the pandemic. As we all know, industrial and supply chains in the economy are like the circulatory system of the human body. Any obstacles or disruptions can slow down or block the flow of lifeblood of the world economy, which not only compromises development efficiency but also triggers various economic risks and social problems. What truly serves the common interests of all is to fully respect the laws of international industrial specialization, firmly advance trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, tighten the bond of cooperation, make the pie of mutual benefit bigger, and steadily enhance the stability of global industrial and supply chains.
Third, strengthening international exchanges and cooperation on science and technology to better benefit humanity with technological advances. The new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation has created a new "coopetition" relationship between countries. To keep the competition healthy and bring out the greatest vitality, the only way is to enhance cooperation in innovation. Scientific and technological fruits should benefit humanity as a whole, instead of becoming a means to restrict or contain the development of other countries. We should advance international exchanges and cooperation on science and technology with a more open mindset and more open measures, work together for an open, just and nondiscriminatory environment for the development of science and technology, and break the barriers impeding the flow of factors of innovation, so as to let innovation thrive in an open environment.
Fourth, strengthening cooperation on green development to actively tackle climate change. Humanity still faces many challenges in addressing climate change and promoting green and low-carbon transition. Talks about the need for stronger cooperation on climate governance are often accompanied by actions of erecting barriers to green trade. Some high-quality and efficient green and low-carbon technologies and products cannot flow freely. It is important that we uphold the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, better synergize our green development strategies, remove various barriers in this field, and jointly work for a complete transition to a greener economy and society.
Fifth, strengthening North-South and South-South cooperation to build a universally beneficial and inclusive world economy. In recent years, problems like the North-South gap, divergences in recovery, and the technological divide have become more acute. Many developing countries are in distress. According to World Bank estimates for this year, the average income in more than one third of the low-income countries will stay below the 2019 level. We Chinese people believe that benefits should be mutual. True and good development is development for all. We need to fully implement the U.N. 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, strengthen global development cooperation, bridge development gaps, and create new cooperation highlights in areas such as poverty alleviation, food security and industrialization, so as to benefit the people of all countries with more fruits of cooperation.
The traditional Chinese culture very much values credibility. China is a country that attaches great importance to commitments, honoring its words with concrete actions all along. With the greatest sincerity, utmost efforts and concrete results, China has proven consistently to the world that it is a country most worthy of trust. We are also well aware that apart from objective reasons, there are also subjective factors that aggravate the trust deficit. In bilateral and multilateral relations, there are many examples where one side's capriciousness undermines mutual trust with others. In our view, the best way to earn trust is to be a better version of oneself. Only when all sides treat each other with sincerity and work in the same direction can there be a stronger foundation of trust and more fruits of cooperation.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Friends,
Under the current circumstances, the world economic recovery requires strong underpinnings. Greater contribution is expected from all countries, especially major economies. I know that you all follow the Chinese economy closely and may have your own observations. So how should one look at the Chinese economy? I believe it is similar to looking at the Alps, the undulating mountain range with magnificent peaks, from the small town of Davos. My European friends told me that to fully appreciate the majestic beauty of the Alps, one has to zoom out and look from afar. It is the same with the Chinese economy. One has to broaden the vision and take a panoramic view to see the whole picture in an objective and comprehensive manner and truly grasp where it is now and where it is going. Here I would like to share with you some perspectives on the Chinese economy.
First, the Chinese economy is making steady progress and will continue to provide strong impetus for the world economy. China is an important engine of global development. Over the years, its contribution to world economic growth has stayed at around 30 percent. In 2023, the Chinese economy rebounded and moved upward, with an estimated GDP growth of around 5.2 percent, higher than the around 5 percent target set at the beginning of the year. In promoting economic development, we did not resort to massive stimulus. We did not seek short-term growth while accumulating long-term risks. Rather, we focused on strengthening the internal drivers. As the second largest economy in the world, China has established, after years of development, sound and solid fundamentals. Just as a healthy person often has a strong immune system, the Chinese economy can handle ups and downs in its performance. The overall trend of long-term growth will not change. In terms of the industrial base, China is the only country with industries across all categories in the U.N. industrial classification. The added value of China's manufacturing industry accounts for around 30 percent of the global total, ranking first in the world for 14 consecutive years. China is also home to over 200 mature industry clusters. With its large scale, complete categories and strong supporting capacity, China's industrial system can meet the demand of the rapid development of social productivity and will contribute to better global allocation of production factors and the rise in global productivity. In terms of production factors, China's demographic dividend is turning into talent dividend. We now rank first in the world in terms of the size of talent pool, human resources in science and technology and the total number of researchers. Capital shortage is replaced by abundance. Our global share of annual capital formation has risen to about 30 percent. In addition, with its huge data output and rich data resources, China has the second largest data mine in the world. In terms of innovation capacity, China's total input in research and development and investment in the high-tech sector has been growing at double-digit rates for several years running. New technologies, including cloud computing, big data, artificial intelligence and blockchain, are being applied at a faster pace. New products and new business forms such as intelligent terminals, robots and telehealth keep emerging. China now has some 400,000 high-tech enterprises and ranks second globally in the number of unicorn companies. All this will boost the formation and cultivation of new growth drivers in China. Looking at the broader picture, we are now advancing Chinese modernization on all fronts through high-quality development. Delivering modernization to more than 1.4 billion people will be a remarkable achievement in human history, one that will provide continuous impetus to the development of China and the wider world.
Second, China has a supersize market with rapidly unlocked demand. It will continue to provide a big stage for various businesses and talents. In the face of weak global demand, market becomes the most scarce resource. The Chinese market, with its vast space and growing depth, will play an important role in boosting aggregate global demand. In China, there are now over 400 million people in the middle-income bracket, and the number is expected to reach 800 million in the next decade or so. For a growing range of products and services, the focus of consumer demand is shifting from quantity to quality, which will generate strong driving force for upgrading consumption. China's urbanization rate is now more than 10 percentage points lower than the average level of the developed countries. There is much room for infrastructural upgrading in urban renewal, transportation and telecommunications, among others. There are also some 300 million rural migrants who are acquiring permanent urban residency at a faster pace. These will create massive demand in areas such as housing, education, medical services and elderly care. China is deepening its transition toward green and low-carbon growth. Close to half of the world's installed photovoltaic capacity is in China. Over half of the world's new energy vehicles (NEVs) run on roads in China, and its NEV ownership has reached over 20 million units. China contributes one-fourth of the increased area of afforestation in the world. China is also cultivating large-scale new growth drivers in sectors such as green infrastructure, green energy, green transportation and green lifestyle. This will generate investment and consumption markets with an estimated size of RMB10 trillion yuan annually, and promises huge potential. We will keep exploring and unleashing such market demand, increase import of high-quality goods and services from all over the world, attract more foreign investment in areas including medium- and high-end manufacturing and biopharmaceuticals, and provide broader space for boosting global trade and investment.
Third, China remains firmly committed to opening up. We will continue to create favorable conditions for the world to share in China's opportunities. In the past four decades and more, China has achieved development and shared benefits with the world through opening up. Right now, China is a major trading partner of over 140 countries and regions. Our overall tariff level has been cut to 7.3 percent, relatively on par with the developed members in the World Trade Organization. By opening up wider, we aim to share China's opportunities and develop together with all in the world. To business leaders here today, I want to say that over the years, multinational corporations have cultivated the Chinese market and, based on China's manufacturing prowess, expanded their global production, grown fast and had good rewards. In the past five years, the return on foreign direct investment in China stands at around nine percent, which is quite competitive globally. Choosing the Chinese market is not a risk, but an opportunity. We embrace investments from businesses of all countries with open arms, and will work tirelessly to foster a market-oriented, law-based and world-class business environment. We will steadily expand institutional opening up, continue to shorten the negative list for foreign investment, follow through on removing all restrictions on access for foreign investment in the manufacturing sector, and guarantee national treatment for foreign businesses. With regard to concerns of some multinationals on issues such as cross-border data flow and equal participation in government procurement, we are working on the formulation of relevant policies. We will also hear the views of foreign businesses regularly and take active steps to address reasonable concerns. All in all, no matter how the world changes, China will stay committed to the fundamental national policy of opening up and open its door still wider to the world.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Friends,
In some 20 days, we will celebrate the Spring Festival to usher in the Chinese Year of the Dragon. In traditional Chinese culture, the dragon is a symbol of auspiciousness, wisdom and strength. In the face of common challenges, we hope that all the members of the international community, with a shared aspiration for a better future and with the vigor of a flying dragon, will forge ahead toward building a community with a shared future for mankind.
To conclude, I wish this annual meeting a complete success.
Thank you.
邮箱：ricn@sjtu.edu.cn
